A recent comment by a reader
on my Facebook author's page interested me. Besides expressing his admiration
for the newly revised version of "The Reality Plague", he also
commented on one of the hard technologies in the book. Specifically, he
mentioned the idea of a general purpose machine that could manufacture
anything, a machine called a "Fabber".
My mind works in mysterious
ways and unbidden it started running threads ("what ifs?") following
each thread to its logical conclusion.
The term "Fabber"
came from a talk I attended years ago when I was an officer in the Society of
Manufacturing Engineers. A professor from Cal State LA presented the concept
and the newly coined word. In his vision, the user of the future would purchase
a file from the internet, a file that contained the programming to use the Fabber
to make something. It could be any consumer product. The user would pay a small
fee for the program and the Fabber would make the item on demand.
Many of my colleagues
thought the idea was science fiction but I knew better, because the machines
were already in existence and making parts. At that time and (still) today the
machine was not called a "Fabber" it was known as a "Rapid
Prototyping Machine" and I’d worked with many of them, both using them and
repairing them.
The machines varied, some
used paper, some chemicals, some corn starch and some metal. Using these
materials they converted a series of program commands to a useful object. In my
own lab at San Diego
City College
we had fabricated dozens of objects ranging from a skull for medical research
to aircraft parts and a plastic ball that actually bounced when thrown.
It's no secret that most of my career was centered on automation. I've worked with and repaired hundreds of robots and machines that are designed to replace people in the creation of manufactured goods.
It's no secret that most of my career was centered on automation. I've worked with and repaired hundreds of robots and machines that are designed to replace people in the creation of manufactured goods.
Now, at this point you might
rightly ask where is he going with this? As I said before, my mind led me along
this path, and if you'll bear with me we'll get there together (eventually). If
you have a tad more tolerance, a little history is in order.
Others might argue the
point, but in my opinion the first true robot was built by MIT in 1955. At that
time it wasn't called a robot. It was called a Numerical Control Machine (or
NC). A 'robot' (unlike Isaac Asimov or other sci-fi authors) is a programmable
machine designed to work in three or more dimensions and replace humans in
various tasks. It needn't look like a human to qualify. The NC was designed to
use a cutting tool and create useful three-dimensional parts out of solid
chunks of metal.
Here’s where the story gets
close to the point. Fast forward seven years later to 1962. At the company I
worked for at the time, the United States Air Force had purchased two of the
machines and had leased them to the company.
The machines produced an
essential part for an airplane. Each employed one human operator and about
three technical people to keep it running for a grand total of five. (I was one
of those people.)
Prior to the introduction of
the machines, the part in question was made of one hundred and two small parts,
all assembled together. To create those parts required the services of
forty-five highly skilled machinists and a like amount of lesser-skilled
assemblers (round it off to one hundred people all working full time). Once the
machines were installed, each machine could make the same part out of one solid
piece of aluminum (exit, stage-left, one hundred well-paid, skilled workers).
It didn’t stop there. Over
the years the machines (robots) became more reliable and more sophisticated,
finally employing computers to control them. After a few sputtering starts,
robots appeared everywhere, making cars, airplanes, cereal, kid’s bikes, the
list is long.
In fact, larger computers began to control entire factories, sending programs to the slave robots to cause them to perform different tasks.
In fact, larger computers began to control entire factories, sending programs to the slave robots to cause them to perform different tasks.
When robots begin to make
things they replace humans. It’s as simple as that.
You might be tempted to
think I’m talking about what’s going to happen in the future, but I’m not. I’m
writing about what’s occurring right here and now. To get an idea of the impact
of automation, think of this: if every component in a modern cell phone, pad
computer, video game console or home computer had to be constructed by hand, no
one could afford them. I’m talking about everything, the fabrication of the
chips, the construction of the boards, and the final assembly of the device.
(Yes, workers assemble iPads in China
from prefabricated parts (parts built by robots), but they’re underpaid and
commit suicide at a depressing rate.)
One might think that the new
robots might have opened more opportunities for the people who repaired them
but that didn’t materialize. The increased reliability and the more modular
construction actually reduced the amount of technicians required.
So, where does this lead? We
have a huge amount of manufacturing occurring (manufacturing has actually
increased in the United
States) but fewer and fewer people can
obtain gainful employment by it.
Of the major economic and
employment areas in the United
States, one of them is manufacturing. Traditionally
manufacturing was the place where the lower educated middle class could find a
decent job and raise a family. However manufacturing as a place to employ
people is, and has been, declining. In fact, I’d argue that the decline in
manufacturing employment has directly led to our current economic woes.
For example, the
disagreements over Social Security stem from the fact that not enough people
are gainfully employed to support it. Social security has been likened to a
Ponzi scheme and it’s true, but it was a Ponzi scheme created by people who
thought it could continue forever.
During the years Social Security
was created, manufacturing was huge and the other economic sectors small in
comparison. The word ‘robot’ was in the vocabulary of a fringe group of sci-fi
writers and no self respecting politician admitted to reading it. In the
politician’s minds goods were created by people, plain and simple and that was
the way it would be forever. Since the U.S. was destined to rule the world
in manufactured products, employment could go only one way and that was up.
Social Security could therefore never run out of money. Today we know that’s
not the case.
(The detractors of Social
Security never mention that the program worked and worked well for decades. It
kept seniors from starving and pumped much needed money into the economy. In
addition, Medicare prevented seniors from going bankrupt from catastrophic
illnesses. The problems with a government program like Social Security or
Medicare stem more from the fact that there aren’t enough workers to support them
rather than the idea the program doesn’t work.)
In the past, manufacturing
represented a place where undereducated people could find employment at
relatively high wages.
Even today, many potential young workers drop out of
education, before or after graduating from high school, either because they’re
not interested or motivated, or the cost of college is too high. These young
men and women represent a large labor pool we could use but we can’t. They will
find it difficult to contribute in this society. They face few choices and most
of them only provide low to minimum wage.
Of the jobs lost and created
after the banking meltdown in 2008, 60 percent were lost in construction and
manufacturing, the places where the above young people might have found a decent
job. However, of the jobs added since the crisis, 58 percent have been low wage
and minimum wage jobs.
Those working for minimum
wage are in the poverty level, only making about $15,000 per year. Providing
minimum wage jobs for these people is clearly not the answer. After standard
deductions, they pay little or no income taxes and their Social Security and
Medicare taxes can’t support the programs. No matter how many jobs you create at
low or minimum wage, it won’t solve any of the problems. Of the high wage jobs
added, most were involved in moving around money to create more money, making
the one percent richer.
Projecting the current trends
into the future and looking at other trends eroding our freedoms, I foresee America as a
police-state oligarchy, ruled by the rich, with robots making most of the
manufactured products. The middle class is destined to vanish replaced by a huge
disenfranchised slave-labor class that will be forced to work for a pittance or
starve once the government’s economic safety net is jerked away.
The elderly (like me) will
be allowed to die off becoming less of a burden on the national debt, and wars
will be used to control the lower classes by distracting them and killing off
the excess people.
In Robert Heinlein’s novella
‘Revolt in Twenty-one Hundred’ one of the characters discusses the use of the
English language to appeal to emotions rather than logic. (The word is commonly
known as ‘propaganda’.) Exciting one’s fears, racial and religious prejudices
using loaded words, even though they might be blatant lies, works and works
well. People want to be soothed by being told what they already believe, rather
than facing the truly complex nature of the world they live in.
Perhaps Heinlein foresaw our
current scenario in his novella or George Orwell in ‘1984’. They just got the dates
wrong.
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